With possible Greece-Turkey ICJ case, the devil is in the details

With Turkish provocations escalating in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranen there is a growing debate in Greece about taking differences to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague.

That is a long and arduous road as it presupposes that the two sides agree about what will be adjudicated out of Turkey’s long list of demands and challenges to Greek sovereignty.

Some believe that the exploratory talks between the countries carried out for many years between Greece and Turkey might be a good starting point though over many years the two sides state and restate their positions with no tangible results.

There are hopes that given increasing tensions that the next round of talks on 30 December may be different.

Turkey has always opposed going to the ICJ but Foreign Minister Mehmet Cavusoglu when asked in a recent interview indicated he does not rule it out.

In Greece for years the ICJ was opposed by Greek public opinion as Athens might lose on key issues.

That has changed and now academics, politicians and the media present it  as the best  solution amidst Turkey’s bellicose actions at sea.

That eagerness in turn may give Ankara the impression that it may achieve key concessions from Athens even as it continues to pursue its expansionist policy throughout the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of Cyprus and Greece, and now Libya.

The Turkey-Libya EEZ MOU infringed directly Athens’ EEZ and has become a key obstacle for continuing talks. Some in Greece support a package delimitation of the EEZ of the Aegean and Mediterranean so as to prevent Turkey’s inclusion of the EEZ of Kastelorizo in order to block the possibility under international law to bring together the EEZs of Greece and Cyprus.

Others want a partial delimitation of the EEZs of Athens and Egypt, but Cairo has not been very receptive to a piecemeal approach. Still, it has alied with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel in dealing with Turkish threats over maritime borders.

Ankara-Tripoli EEZ agreement

The Ankara-Tripoli accord has complicated matters inordinately and has brought many outside players who oppose Turkey’s move to create a de facto situation into the game.

Many politicians and experts say that Greece must insist on a package deal on the Aegean and Mediterranean.

That appears extremely difficult after the Ankara MOU and Ankara’s letter to the UN on the subject.

Turkey in effect has cut out and expropriated large chunks of Greece’s EEZ extending even to the islands of Rhodes, Karpoathos, Kasos and the largest island of Greece, Crete, which does not appear on the EEZ map Turkey sent to the UN.

ICJ road long and arduous

Even if the exploratory talks lead to significant progress, the drafting of a joint promissory note is an enormous task as Ankara insists on placing the sovereignty of a list of Greek islets as an issue for the ICJ, something that Greece has vehemently opposed.

Athens has also moved to update and sign a 1977 agreement with Rome on delimiting their EEZs.

Striking a delimitation deal with Egypt has also proved difficult as Cairo has so far not been receptive to a partial delimitation.