IR prof.: Two Scenarios Behind Cavusoglu’s Threats – There’s Bad and then there’s Worse

Two scenarios are seen by Panteion University Professor of International Relations, Costas Yfantis, behind the saber rattling of Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoglu, who, by formalizing a second Turkish casus belli against Greece, upgraded his bellicose rhetoric.

Cavusoglu even announced actions on the part of Ankara for the practical questioning of Greek sovereignty.

An overt link between demilitarization and Greek sovereignty

The issue of demilitarization is long-standing on Ankara’s agenda. “The” upgrade “of the Turkish provocation lies in what has to do with the fact that the slogan of demilitarization is now openly linked to sovereignty, that is, to whom the islands belong,” said Mr. Yfantis, speaking on ERT radio’s First Program.

Turkey now, said Mr. Yfantis, at the highest possible level, expresses the view that the Greek islands of the eastern Aegean were ceded to Greece under the conditions of Lausanne and Paris in 1947 on the condition that they remain demilitarized. “The upgrade is very serious, it poses a threat that no one can ignore, given the overall package of Turkish claims where the spearhead is the casus belli,” said Mr. Yfantis.

The worst case scenario

According to the professor, their goal is two scenarios, as he characteristically said, one very bad and one less bad. “The very bad scenario is that Turkey is no longer interested in any compromise in the Aegean and the East Mediterranean and will continue to pressure Athens in order to completely overturn the provisions of the Treaty of Lausanne. One hopes that this will remain at a diplomatic political level.

The least bad scenario is that this legitimate dimension of the Turkish claim, which is taken as such for the first time, aims to force Athens to negotiate between two very bad options. One is to finally accept Turkey’s firm position that the islands have no rights in the maritime zones except territorial waters and that even these are limited, in order to avoid a comprehensive negotiation that Ankara hopes will impose on us and has to do with the sovereignty of the islands and the overall revision of the Treaty,” explained Mr. Yfantis, according to ertnews.gr.

Greece’s defense agreements

Asked if there is a connection between Turkey’s recent stance and the international defense agreements that our country has entered into, Mr. Yfantis replied that indeed, Turkey sees that Greece stubbornly refuses to adapt to Turkish regional preferences and ambitions and because there is a process of restoring the balance of power.

All these agreements with the Greek armament program, the freezing of the upgrade of the Turkish air force, all this may lead to a safe assessment that Ankara is driven to put as much pressure as possible, in this time window that exists while the [Greek] armament [program] is in progress, to delegitimize or generally deconstruct the international legal advantage that the country has.