OT FORUM – Piraeus bank chief economist: Growth in 2022 depends on the duration of the war

His estimation that the Greek economy will grow at a rate of about 3% in 2022 compared to the initial forecast of Piraeus Bank for growth of 5.50%, was expressed by the chief economist of the systemic group Elias Lekkos, speaking at the OT Forum.

According to Mr. Lekkos, everything will depend on the duration of the war in Ukraine, which will inevitably affect tourism.

As the Chief Economist of Piraeus Bank explained, if the Russian invasion had not taken place, tourism revenues could have reached as much as 18 billion euros and would have contributed to GDP by 7 billion euros.

However, now the goal is to exceed the 11 billion euros of 2021, something that according to Mr. Lekkos, is possible.

He also highlighted the fact that the EU is moving towards a revision of the Stability Pact, so that the high and anti-growth primary surpluses envisaged by the country’s agreements in 2014 and 2015, are adjusted to lower levels.

In relation to inflation, the Piraeus Bank executive said that the average inflation is expected to reach 6.5% this year, while in the next 2-3 months it is possible for this to go up to 8% -9% .

He noted, however, that one of the reasons for these high rates is the low base compared to 2021, when inflation was, during some months, even negative, as the economy was closed due to the pandemic.

In the basic scenario, according to Mr. Lekkos, the consumer price index will decline from the summer onwards, not only because of the aforementioned technical parameter, but because it is estimated that the geopolitical intensity will decrease and energy prices will be corrected.