KEPE “fear” index: Increase in uncertainty for the Greek market

The uncertainty of the participants in the derivatives market about the expected short-term course of the Greek market, calculated on the basis of the prices of the options of the FTSE/X.A. Large Cap index, is reflected in the evolution of the “fear” index of the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE).

In particular, the KEPE GRIV index reached 31.62% on 31/8/2022 from 28.19% on 29/7/2022.

In addition, the average daily value of the index increased in August 2022 reaching 31.16% from 26.93% in July 2022.

The index remained below its historical average level (since January 2004) for the Greek market, which stands at 32.61%.

The evolution of the index indicates an increase in uncertainty for the expected short-term course of the Greek market compared to the end of the previous month

The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) of KEPE

Αccording to the most recent observation for May 2022, the CLI recorded an increase, following the marginal decrease of the preceding period of reference, moving around levels that are the highest for the total period of investigation. The respective development seems to be an extension of the generally rising course of the CLI from 2020 onwards.

On these grounds, it is assumed to reflect the ongoing formation of positive expectations and assessments by agents involved in economic activity, offering leading indications for the preservation of an overall favourable economic environment. At the same time, it indicates that the adverse impact from inflationary pressures and the energy sector crisis associated with the pandemic and the war in Ukraine is not predominant.

In any case, under the specific conditions that prevail, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI with the aim to acquire additional evidence. The inclusion of new data is expected to demonstrate the continuation or interruption of the observed trends regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.