Alpha Bank forecast: Coming period of uncertainty due to inflation, energy concerns

Athens-based lender Alpha Bank’s new quarterly economic bulletin on the global economy, christened “Navigator”, debuted on Thursday with a forecast – more-or-less expected – that the Greek economy will face a coming winter period of uncertainty, due to inflationary pressures and concerns over energy sufficiency.

The publication reminds that the inflation rate in the east Mediterranean country reached 11.4 percent in August 2022, easing from 12.1 percent in June 2022 – the record for the year so far. Alpha’s analysts predict that the inflation rate will remain in double-digit territory for a fifth straight month, thus continuing to slice away at households’ and businesses’ disposable income.

Moreover, bank analysts underlined that the Greek economy in the second quarter of 2022 grew at an annual rate of 7.7 percent, and by 1.2 percent on a quarterly basis. The closely watched third quarter is expected to prominently show tourism’s impact, given that 2022 is poised to become the best holiday season ever for the country’s all-important sector.

Private sector consumption was the “locomotive” of economic growth, as it was up by 11.4 percent in the first half of the year, thus accounting for 7.9 percent of the GDP growth.

Travel remittances in July 2022 also posted a new record, totaling 3.7 billion euros.

On the down side, the yield for the 10-year bond reached 5.10 percent on Sept. 28, 2022, the highest spread since 2017, in tandem with the international sovereign market trend.