Greek Elections 2023: The difference between ND – SYRIZA and the parties entering Parliament

In the run-up to the June 25 elections, party staffs are gearing up to ensure that not a single vote is lost. It is considered certain that the result of the May 21 election will not be overturned, but the fear of abstention is palpable and, together with the undecided voters, will play an important role. Not in terms of New Democracy‘s primacy, but in terms of the level of self-reliance, in terms of the percentages of SYRIZA and its difference with PASOK, as well as in terms of the number of parties that will cross the 3% limit and enter in Parliament.

That is why all the parties have their eyes on the “reservoir” of undecided voters, trying to reach them. A reservoir, which, however, remains fluid and it is possible that a sufficient number will finally decide where it will “go”, literally just above the ballot box.

All opinion polls show the rallying of the New Democracy at high levels, giving it the appearance of a great victory, with the interest shifting to what will happen to the parties that are on the threshold of entering the Parliament, as it will depend to a certain extent on their number and the amount of self-reliance of the first party.

The ND – SYRIZA gap widens

In yesterday’s Rass poll for Action 24, the difference between ND and SYRIZA widens to 23.4 percentage points.

The percentages of the parties in the intention to vote are ND: 40.2% SYRIZA: 16.8% PASOK: 11.5% KKE: 7.6% Hellenic Solution: 3.8% Plefsi Eleftherias: 3.7% Niki: 2 .8% MeRA25: 2.6% Spartiates: 2.2% Other party 2.4%.

This survey shows Hellenic Solution enters Parliament as does Plefsi Eleftherias. According to the poll, Niki, MeRA25 and Spartiates remain outside the Parliament.

In an MRB poll on behalf of Newsbomb, conducted from June 15 to 19, 2023, New Democracy reaches a percentage of 36.6% in contrast to SYRIZA which seems to be falling to 17.8%. PASOK maintains its strength and is at 10.3%, KKE at 6.2%, Plefsi Eleftherias at 3.9%, Hellenic Solution at 3.6% and Niki, the party of Dimitris Natsios, is marginally at 3%.

In the scenario of the seven-party parliament, based on the MRB poll, the seats of the parties are as follows: 162 for New Democracy, 55 for SYRIZA, 32 for PASOK, 19 for KKE, 12 for Pleussi Eleftherias, 11 seats for the Hellenic Solution and 9 seats for the Victory party.

In terms of abstentions, 13% say they are quite to very likely not to vote, compared to 14.4% in the previous MRB poll, which covered June 6-7, 2023 However, it is a fact that a percentage of 85% declares that it is not that likely that they will not vote in the June 25 elections.

Who wants to change their vote?

An interesting element from the MRB measurement is the probability that voters change their decision at the last minute at the ballot box. Those who voted for New Democracy at a rate of 3.4% are thinking of changing their decision, those who voted for SYRIZA at a rate of 5.8%. For PASOK, things are more difficult since 15.6% of its voters state that they may change their decision. 18.8% for those who voted for KKE and 3.8 for those who voted for Hellenic Solution. 5.3% of those who voted for the Niki party state that they might change their decision and 33.7% for those who voted for Zoi Konstantopoulou’s Plefsi Eleftherias party.

In the Opinion Poll survey for The Toc on whether voters are considering switching to another party this time at the polls, 74.3% said they would vote for the same formation while more confident they would vote for the same party are again the voters of ND, KKE and Hellenic Solution.

According to the GPO poll for Parapolitika, 17.1% of all voters for the June 25 elections are in the mood to change, with the volatility index being higher in SYRIZA with 17.1% and in PASOK with 18%, while only 5% of those who voted for New Democracy on May 21 are thinking of voting differently.