Greek Elections 2023: New Democracy clearly first, smaller parties fracas to enter Parliament

All of them record the self-reliance of New Democracy, but also its double-digit difference from SYRIZA, which sometimes falls below the 20 points of May elections and sometimes rises.

What is “up for grabs”, depending on the measurement, is the number of parties that enter the Parliament, achieving the necessary 3% threshold needed to enter parliament.

In general, however, most surveys show a six- or seven-party Parliament – and this is precisely the anxiety of the parliamentary parties.

Because the system of semi-proportional representation with a sliding scale bonus gives bonuses to the first party, however, the greater the sum of the percentages of the parties that enter the parliament, the smaller the percentages for the largest and the less… comfortable the autonomy of the first.

That is why, moreover, in the last few days, the political leaders are following the tacticσ of “side-cutting” the extra-parliamentary parties, which according to the opinion polls succeed in entering the Parliament.

The attacks by the “large” on the “small”

Kyriakos Mitsotakis attacks “Supposedly patriots and supposedly faithful Christians”, targeting the parties to the right of New Democracy.

On his part, Alexis Tsipras warns that every vote “that does not go to SYRIZA strengthens an uncontrollable Right”, trying to convince voters, if not to return, at least to stay with him – those who voted for him in May.

In addition, the daily attacks, primarily on PASOK, but also on communist party KKE, are included in this effort, while the latest “hit” on the occasion of PASOK’s press representative, Dimitris Manzos, regarding loans and funds, four days before the elections, it is moving in exactly this direction.

Nikos Androulakis, however, is the only political leader who did not deal much with the smaller parties or the so-called “anti-systemic” vote.

He is satisfied with the return of his party to double-digit percentages, which he seems to maintain, based on opinion polls, in the June 25 elections, as his main goal is to deconstruct SYRIZA as an “unreliable” opposition, which became its “golden sponsor” victory of Mitsotakis, as he says, and above all for the former disaffected PASOK and… current disaffected SYRIZA to return to their “home”.

As for KKE SG Dimitris Koutsoubas, on a daily basis and beyond the expected attacks on ND, SYRIZA and PASOK, he unleashed “barbs” against Plefsi Eleftheria, mainly, and the newly formed “Niki”, warning KKE voters that the vote in such “disposable, do-it-yourself” parties, as he characteristically stated, means fewer communist MPs who will fight for the people inside and outside Parliament.

The percentages and movements of voters

New Democracy records from 38.5 to 43.8% in the vote estimates, always depending on the total percentage of parties that enter the Parliament.

Thus, with a difference of 19.5% from SYRIZA, according to the poll carried out by the company Pulse for SKAI, New Democracy registers 38.5% in the intention to vote, SYRIZA 19%, PASOK 11.5% and the KKE 6.5%, while seven parties enter the Parliament.

In the scenario of the six-party Parliament, however, New Democracy registers the largest number of seats, electing 166 MPs, while in the – unlikely – scenario of a nine-party Parliament, the seats of the Mitsotakis party fall to 155.

Which parties record voter leakage

According to the Alco poll for Alpha, in which New Democracy maintains a large lead of 21.1 points over SYRIZA, with 39.5% to 18.4% for Tsipras’ party, participants are also asked to answer if they will change parties.

And although the majority answered that they intend to vote for the same party they voted for in May at a rate of 81%, some parties recorded losses – some large and others smaller.

Thus, in the question of how many will “change” party, the biggest losses seem to be registered by the Hellenic Solution with 26%, the Plefsi Eleftherias with 20% and MeRA25 with 16%.

Of the major parties, however, ND loses only 1.5%, SYRIZA and KKE an 8%, while PASOK records the biggest losses, of 11%.

Self-reliance with 162 seats and a percentage of 42% in the vote estimate gives the ND the GPO poll for Star, while seven parties seem to cross the “threshold” of 3% and ensure their entry into Parliament.

In the vote intention, the ND collects 41.2% (which rises to 42% in the estimate), with a lead of 22.8 points from SYRIZA, which collects 18.4%.

PASOK recorded 11.1%, KKE 7%, Hellenic Solution 3.8% and Freedom Sailing 3.1%.

They want stability and a better NHS

The GPO poll has two “qualitative” characteristics.

The first is that citizens vote based on the stability of the country at a rate of 41.8%, while 23.3% have as a criterion the change of policy / government.

The second concerns the problems they face in their daily lives.

Tackling the shortcomings of the NHS and the inflationary phenomenon, along with increases in wages and pensions, are for citizens the three priorities that the next government should have.