William J. Antholis: The US election is far from decided

By William  J. Antholis, Director &  CEO of Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia

President Biden’s decision Sunday to step aside from the 2024 presidential race has historic significance on par with Lyndon Johnson’s decision to withdraw in 1968 and even George Washington’s decision to not run in 1796. The forces behind this weekend’s political earthquake have been at work for years, of course—from the deeply divided electorate, the deep antipathy between President Biden and former President Trump, and the grinding force of age.  Most importantly, Biden’s withdrawal has now pushed forward Kamala Harris as his replacement.

The earthquake began with President Biden’s catastrophic debate performance on June 27. It sent shockwaves through Democratic circles, and began to divide the party over whether he was capable of winning the election.

What is most striking about Biden’s fall, in retrospect, is how united the party is and has been on his performance as president. His historic legislative accomplishments rival those of Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson in the sheer number of laws passed, if not in reshaping the goals and missions of the American government. Biden helped manage true national crises — economic, national security, and domestic crises — on par with those inherited by Washington, Roosevelt, and Johnson. That includes a global pandemic, a resulting inflation crisis, the constitutional crisis on January 6th, and Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.  On top of developing responses to all of those issues, the Biden team also passed historic bipartisan infrastructure and technology laws, as well as major climate change legislation.

And yet while Biden managed to provide significant governing victories for a number of factions within the Democratic Party, he also was unable to grow his popularity beyond about 45% of the electorate.  The biggest challenge was his administration’s inability to tame inflation.  While economic growth and job creation levels remained high, inflation also remained stubborn for most of his four year term, making it difficult to win over independent voters, who favored Donald Trump on pocket-book concerns.

Moreover, a few other governing failures — such as the tragic pullout in Afghanistan combined with his administration’s qualified support for Israel to — began to erode a sense of confidence within his own party.  And beyond all that, while a broad public generally liked him and admired his values, they also worried deeply about his age, including whether he had severe mental decline.  In the end, he saw that he had lost the confidence of his party to defeat Donald Trump, even if he had not lost their love and thanks.

Vice President Harris has now quickly stepped in as his replacement.  Her ascent is a stunning political turnaround.  In her first two years as Vice President, she seemed unsure of her place in the Biden White House.  She had stumbled early in efforts to address immigration. And she also seemed unable to craft a policy agenda that told a bigger story about her leadership priorities and governing style.  That began to change in the run-up to the 2022 mid-term elections, when she seized on reproductive rights and the threat to democracy as her guiding issues.  On top of that, the Ukraine War provided an opportunity for her to develop national security leadership skills.

Democrats know that they are taking a gamble with uncertain chances of success.  So far, it is showing dividends.  She already has slowed down the momentum of the Trump-Vance campaign.  Just four days ago, they were riding high from a successful convention that demonstrated unity in the Republican Party.  They were preparing to run a campaign focused on Biden’s age, in addition to lingering concerns about the economy and international conflict.  Suddenly, it is the Democratic candidate who can now question the age of her opponent.  Moreover, as a former prosecutor, she provides a sharp contrast to former President Trump, who is now a convicted felon.

The race is far from decided.  After a very tumultuous month — which included major controversial Supreme Court rulings and an assassination attempt on President Trump — the race may be once again too-close-to-call.  Moreover, Vice President Harris will have to learn on the job how to run a national campaign, including building a team she can trust and finding a compelling voice and vision.  But her elevation to the head of the Democratic Party has provided a jolt of energy to the race that had been lacking for the last year.